Polymarket
500ms Taker Speedbump: Impact Analysis
On November 14, 2025, Polymarket introduced an unannounced 500ms delay for taker orders on 15-minute and 1-hour crypto up/down markets. This analysis examines the impact on taker trading activity, profitability, and market participation.
Key Changes (Interrupted Time Series Analysis):
- Average PnL: Immediate level change: +0.78 ** (+1365.3%) | Trend change: -0.0035/day
- Median PnL: Immediate level change: -0.09 *** | Trend change: -0.0069/day ***
- Daily Volume: Immediate level change: $-11.96M *** | Trend change: +$0.48M/day ***
- Daily Trades: Immediate level change: -799,114.554 *** | Trend change: +63384.2/day ***
- Daily Traders: Immediate level change: -2,769.237 *** | Trend change: -60.4/day ***
- Win Rate: Immediate level change: -0.2% | Trend change: -0.0196%/day ***
Analysis Method: This analysis accounts for pre-existing trends in the data and separates immediate effects at the speedbump from changes in trend afterward. * indicates significant changes (p < 0.1), ** indicates highly significant changes (p < 0.05), *** indicates very highly significant changes (p < 0.01).
Average & Median PnL per Trade
Capitola ResearchDaily Trading Volume
Capitola ResearchDaily Number of Trades
Capitola ResearchDaily Number of Traders
Capitola ResearchWin Rate (%)
Capitola ResearchTotal Daily PnL
Capitola ResearchInterrupted Time Series Analysis: Detailed Results
This analysis accounts for pre-existing trends in the data. The model separates level changes (immediate effect at speedbump) from trend changes (change in slope). This is more appropriate for time series data than simple before/after comparisons.
| Metric | Pre-Trend (per day) | Level Change (immediate) | Level Sig. | Trend Change (slope change) | Trend Sig. | R² | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Average PnL | -0.0306 | +0.78 | ** | -0.0035/day | — | 0.479 | 122 |
| Median PnL | 0.0027 | -0.09 | *** | -0.0069/day | *** | 0.512 | 122 |
| Daily Volume | $0.51M/day | $-11.96M | *** | +$0.48M/day | *** | 0.840 | 122 |
| Daily Trades | 21255.9/day | -799,114.554 | *** | +63384.2/day | *** | 0.951 | 122 |
| Daily Traders | 214.2/day | -2,769.237 | *** | -60.4/day | *** | 0.859 | 122 |
| Win Rate (%) | 0.0074%/day | -0.2% | — | -0.0196%/day | *** | 0.325 | 122 |
Interpretation: The analysis uses 61 pre-speedbump days and 61 post-speedbump days. R² values indicate how well the model fits the data (higher = better fit). * indicates significant changes (p < 0.1), ** indicates highly significant changes (p < 0.05), *** indicates very highly significant changes (p < 0.01).