Analytics
Polymarket
Do Diversified Users Outperform Concentrated Bettors?
This analysis compares performance metrics across different levels of diversification.
How Diversification is Calculated: Diversification is measured by the number of distinct market types a user trades across, not just the number of markets. A user trading 100 different BTC 15min markets is not diversified—they're still concentrated in a single market type.
Market Types: Examples include BTC_15min, ETH_1hr, SOL_15min, sports, politics, etc. Each unique combination of asset/timeframe or category counts as a distinct market type.
Diversification Categories:
- Concentrated: 1 market type (e.g., only BTC 15min markets)
- Moderate: 2-3 market types (limited diversification)
- Diversified: 4-6 market types (good diversification)
- Highly Diversified: 7+ market types (very broad diversification)
User Lifetime Trading Volume by Diversification Level
| Diversification | Users | Avg Lifetime Volume | Median Lifetime Volume | % Active | % Churned (90d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Highly Diversified | 135,084 | $1,185,260 | $139,698 | 79.0% | 6.6% |
| Diversified | 488,967 | $133,153 | $76,698 | 60.8% | 14.7% |
| Moderate | 682,698 | $71,883 | $41,606 | 64.7% | 16.6% |
| Concentrated | 635,983 | $53,868 | $22,096 | 70.1% | 4.8% |
Top Traders Performance by Diversification
| Diversification | Count | Avg PnL | Median PnL | Avg ROI % | Avg Win Rate % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unknown | 1 | $3,773,822 | $3,773,822 | 72.8% | 72.5% |
| Highly Diversified | 456 | $2,146,998 | $1,077,407 | 31.4% | 50.0% |
| Diversified | 297 | $1,434,452 | $878,864 | 27.3% | 50.5% |
| Moderate | 144 | $1,248,368 | $897,330 | 25.7% | 52.6% |
| Concentrated | 102 | $1,836,870 | $1,177,211 | 31.2% | 57.1% |
Monthly PnL by Diversification Level (Top 10 Traders per Month)
Shows individual top 10 traders per month (one dot per trader) color-coded by diversification level. Each month has up to 10 dots representing the top 10 traders for that month. Diversification categories are based on the number of distinct market types traded (e.g., BTC_15min, ETH_1hr, sports, politics), not just the number of markets.
Algorithmic Traders Are More Diversified
Algorithmic traders show significantly higher diversification than human traders. 16.5% of algorithmic traders are highly diversified, compared to 3.0% of human traders.
Conversely, 10.7% of algorithmic traders are concentrated (trading only 1 market type), compared to 41.9% of human traders.
Number of Traders by Diversification and Type
Shows the count of top traders grouped by diversification level (rows) and trader type (columns). Darker shades indicate higher counts.
Trading Volume by Diversification and Type
Shows total trading volume grouped by diversification level (rows) and trader type (columns). Darker shades indicate higher volume.