Questions
Each row is one question. Theme labels the topic, priority is a coarse triage (1 = highest). The last column links to a dashboard or analysis when one exists.
Showing 31 of 31
| Priority | Question | Status | Dashboard |
|---|---|---|---|
| P3 | **Crypto Up/Down Analysis** (Speedbump) Liquidity depth pre/post speedbump: How did order book depth change at various price levels (1%, 2%, 5% from mid)? | To Do | — |
| P1 | **Crypto Up/Down Analysis** (Speedbump) What is the change in median and average PnL for takers after speedbump implementation? | Done | — |
| P1 | **Crypto Up/Down Analysis** (Speedbump) Did the 500ms delay shift the ratio of market orders to limit orders? | To Do | — |
| P1 | **Crypto Up/Down Analysis** (Taker Fee Sensitivity) How sensitive are markets to fees (before and after fee switch for 15 min crypto markets)? | Done | — |
| P1 | **Crypto Up/Down Analysis** (Taker Fee Sensitivity) Map fee sensitivity against Trading Volume, Number of Limit Orders, Average Order Size, and Price Level. | To Do | — |
| P1 | **Crypto Up/Down Analysis** (Taker Fee Sensitivity) What fraction of users are profitable pre-fee but unprofitable post-fee? | To Do | — |
| P1 | **Crypto Up/Down Analysis** (Taker Fee Sensitivity) What percent of users who left due to fees churned vs. traded other markets? | To Do | — |
| P3 | **Crypto Up/Down Analysis** (Comparison) Where does price discovery for crypto markets happen (Polymarket vs. Kalshi)? | To Do | — |
| P3 | **Crypto Up/Down Analysis** (Comparison) For markets that resolved very close to the up/down threshold, was there more volume on-chain / on Binance at those points in time? | To Do | — |
| P3 | **User LTV + Retention** (Entry Patterns) Do users who start on crypto, sports, or politics markets have different retention/volume trajectories? | Done | — |
| P3 | **User LTV + Retention** (Graduation) Segment users into: Start small → profit → scale up; Deposit once → churn; Grind break-even → eventually leave. | To Do | — |
| P2 | **User LTV + Retention** (Churn Dynamics) What is the duration between a user's last profitable trade and account abandonment? | To Do | — |
| P3 | **User LTV + Retention** (Churn Dynamics) What's the average time between resolution finalization and user redemptions? | To Do | — |
| P2 | **User LTV + Retention** (Churn Dynamics) After major market resolutions (elections, Super Bowl), do winners keep trading / cash out / or do losers revenge trade / churn? | To Do | — |
| P2 | **Market Makers** (General Numbers) Compare the number and distribution of market maker rewards claims today vs. 1 year ago. | To Do | — |
| P3 | **Market Makers** (PnL) Estimate market maker PnL (excluding platform fees) by market category. Are they getting good fills/breakeven? | To Do | — |
| P3 | **Market Makers** (Quoting Strategies) How do market makers adjust spreads in response to volatility? | To Do | — |
| P3 | **Market Makers** (Quoting Strategies) Do market makers widen quotes or double down when hit frequently on their bid? | To Do | — |
| P2 | **User Segmentation** (Profitability) Are profitable traders getting more or less profitable over time (Top 1k traders)? | Done | — |
| P2 | **User Segmentation** (Trading Frequency) What is the relationship between number of trades and profitability? Is there an optimal trading frequency? | Done | — |
| P2 | **User Segmentation** (Cross-Category) What are the most correlated trading categories (e.g., categories sports traders trade in outside of sports)? | To Do | — |
| P2 | **User Segmentation** (Diversification) Do diversified users (across many markets) outperform concentrated bettors? | Done | — |
| P1 | **Market Efficiency** (Trader Count) Do markets with more unique traders resolve closer to the "correct" price earlier? Is there a trader count where accuracy plateaus? | To Do | Open |
| P1 | Market trader counts Create a function where given an event slug, the number of unique traders over time shows in a graph (per day and cumulative) | Done | — |
| P2 | **Market Efficiency** (Launch Price) How far off is the price from eventual settlement in the first hour after market launch? How quickly does the first price become informative? | To Do | — |
| P2 | **Markets** (Slippage/Liquidity) What is the average slippage / liquidity per category and sub-category (e.g., Sports vs Politics, NFL vs NBA)? | To Do | — |
| P2 | **Markets** (Slippage/Liquidity) How much liquidity is available during games vs. pre-game for live markets? | To Do | — |
| P2 | **Market Predictors** (Accuracy) What features predict prediction market calibration quality the best (e.g., number of traders, volume, category)? | To Do | — |
| P1 | Market spreads For markets with high spreads and low liquidity (spread > 10%, graph how they actually resolve. Is the midpoint a good proxy or does it skew more toward bid/ask? | To Do | Open |
| — | Polymarket rewards What % of Polymarket rewards comes from the platform vs users, live on Feb 17 (https://x.com/mustafap0ly/status/2023862766348759337) | — | — |
| — | Pricing Make a dashboard to see where you get the best price across exchanges (https://x.com/vibhu/status/2023623814433706418/photo/1) | — | — |